Kentucky Republicans have some decisions to make and they’ll have to make some of them soon.

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning shows no overt signs of changing his mind about seeking a third term. He is widely viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in 2010, and it looks more and more likely he’ll face a primary challenge. His fundraising has been anemic and he encouraged Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to raise money and gauge interest for Grayson’s potential as a Senate candidate.

That prompted many Republicans to assume Bunning might withdraw and endorse his longtime friend, especially if Grayson raised more money in the second quarter than Bunning. Bunning all but conceded this week that will be the case when he files his Federal Election Commission report on July 15. Grayson has already announced he raised $600,000. But at the same time, he said he’s “absolutely” running for re-election.

On Wednesday Rand Paul, the Bowling Green ophthalmologist and son of one-time presidential candidate Ron Paul, implied he’s likely to enter the race by Aug. 20. He’s raised $100,000 and hopes to raise $1 million online in a single day. Bill Johnson of Elkton is in the race and Cathy Bailey of Louisville, a prodigious fundraiser and former ambassador to Latvia, is interested.

Grayson, like Paul, initially said he does not want to challenge Bunning. But if Bunning doesn’t withdraw, Grayson has to make a decision – and soon. He can’t continue to “explore” the race forever. As Danny Briscoe, the Louisville political consultant, observed in the best quote of the campaign in a Lexington Herald-Leader story by Jack Brammer: "You have to go back to the days of Ferdinand Magellan and Balboa to see so much exploring."

Grayson, who flirted with a run against then Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007 but backed away, can’t disappoint supporters a second time without diminishing his political future. But if he stays in he risks his friendship with Bunning.

The continuing uncertainty in the Republican Party is putting pressure on Republican county officials and party faithful as well. For weeks, Republicans out in the state have privately indicated they think Grayson would be their party’s best chance to hold onto a critical Senate seat but most said they’d stay with Bunning as long as he is in the race. But a lot of those people showed up at Grayson fundraisers in June, including some elected officials in Congressman Hal Rogers’ district. Some may be having second thoughts about Bunning.

Those elected officials will be on the 2010 ballot, too. That creates a more personal consideration as they decide whom to support for the Senate. Some of them are probably wondering if their own electoral prospects will be helped or hurt with Bunning at the top of the ticket. It may not matter down in the “Old Fifth” where Republicans dominate, but for Republican officials in more Democratic counties it could be crucial.

They’re probably looking at the last races run by Grayson and Bunning. Bunning squeaked by in 2004, narrowly defeating then state Senator and now Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo even though George Bush was winning in Kentucky by a landslide. In 2007, Grayson easily won re-election despite Fletcher’s overwhelming defeat by Steve Beshear.

Paul and Grayson can’t wait much longer before getting all the way in or getting out. Look for Grayson to make an announcement before Fancy Farm, the annual political event in western Kentucky on Aug. 1. Then we can start watching what county level Republicans do.

RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com.