How cold will it go?

By AMBER DILLEY
Glasgow Daily Times

GLASGOW August 27, 2008 12:56 pm

— The 2009 edition of the Farmer’s Almanac, which hit the stands Tuesday, is predicting a harsh winter for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.
Kentucky falls in the southernmost corner of the almanac’s Great Lakes/Midwest region and according to predictions, will have above-normal snowfall in January and February.
Should we start buying snow shovels?
Not according to some.
Keys Arnold, staff meteorologist at the University of Kentucky, said the Farmers’ Almanac and the National Weather Service (NWS) are calling for opposite weather patterns.
“From what I’ve heard, the almanac is predicting a colder winter, while the National Weather Service is saying a slightly warmer winter,” Arnold said.
He said from what he’s seen, winter will be the same as usual.
“All indications right now show that it will be a near-normal winter,” he said. “The three-month maps that I’ve been looking at show near-normal temperatures this winter.”
Last year, Kentucky experienced a warmer-than-usual January, with temperatures in the 70s, followed by winter storms and tornadoes in February.
Arnold said the Farmers Almanac usually contradicts the NWS.
“A lot of it is based on folklore and old wives’ tales,” Arnold said. “I would lean more toward the weather service. I would take anything in the almanac with a grain of salt.”
Dick Frymire, a self-proclaimed “treeologist” from Irvington, predicts the weather based on his Japanese maple tree. He said he’s expecting the same as the NWS.
“I’m not saying it will be a very hard winter, it will be about average,” Frymire said.
Frymire, who’s been calling the weather for 43 years, said he’s seen an increased interest in weather forecasting.
“We got our first request Jan. 3 this year,” he said. “We’ve already gotten 514 requests. It never ceases to amaze me. Last night, from 6 to 10 p.m., I had 16 calls at the house – people asking if they could get the predictions.”
The Farmers’ Almanac, which is 129 years old, is not the same as the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac, which is 155 years old. The younger Farmers’ Almanac predicts the weather two years in advance, based on the calculations of reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee. He formulates predictions based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tides of the moon.

Winter prediction
Dick Frymire’s predictions for winter 2008-09:
Oct. 8 - light frost
Oct. 16 - big frost
Nov. 6 - flurries
Nov. 15 - flurries
Nov. 20 - tracking snow at 10:28 CDT
Nov. 30 - One inch of snow
Dec. 7 - Two inches of snow
Dec. 23 - One inch of snow
Jan. 7 through Feb. 7: very cold
Jan. 15 - Six inches of snow
Jan. 16 - coldest temperatures at -12 F
Jan. 23 - Five inches of snow
Jan. 29 - Three inches of snow and sleet/hazardous driving conditions
Feb. 2 - One inch of snow
Feb. 22 - Two inches of snow
Feb. 23 - The first robin will appear at 8:27 a.m. CDT
March 8 - One inch of snow
March 20 - One inch of snow
March 29 - 68 degrees F
April 2 - last snow